Follow the Hackers
This post offers personal insights on predicting tech trends by observing hackers. It’s based on subjective observations and should be read with critical thinking. If you’re looking for meticulously researched, data-driven analyses, you might want to check out an actual research paper instead!
Want to see tomorrow’s important technologies? Watch what hackers are passionate about today.
Defining “Hacker”
I’m using the term “hacker” in the spirit of the Hacker Ethic, as described by authors like Steven Levy and Pekka Himanen. In this context, a hacker is someone who:
- Follows their passion and seeks self-fulfillment through technology
- Creates something beneficial for the wider community
- Values freedom, cooperation, and voluntary work
- Challenges traditional work ethics with a focus on creativity and sharing
These folks are a small subset of the population, but they have some traits that make them excellent predictors of the future:
- They care deeply about their field - programming being just one example
- They’re passionate about the things they believe in
- They’d use something even if no one else cared about it
- They work at the cutting edge, so they need the best tools to do their job
- They hold strong opinions on what works and what doesn’t, backed by solid evidence
- They don’t care about investors, quarterly earnings reports, or politics - they purely focus on the technology’s value
Catalysts For Success And Red Flags
Of course, not every hyped technology makes it big. Remember NFTs or Web3?
The key difference? Real hackers were never passionate about these technologies - ordinary people were. Another red flag is when the technology’s benefits are hard to explain. If hardcore tech people can’t explain the benefits to you, that’s a bad sign. Look deeper and you’ll find different motivations at work!
It’s typically people looking to profit from technology. They brand themselves as Investors, “Serial Entrepreneurs”, and “Thought Leaders”. You’ll find them on LinkedIn, updating their profiles with the latest buzzwords every few months. While a few are legitimate, most are opportunists who couldn’t explain the technology to save their lives. Profit is their only motivation.
The hackers? They don’t care what you think about them. They’ve got nothing to sell you. They’re too busy building cool stuff!
A question hackers care about is “who owns the platform”? Companies always have an agenda. Pour in your time and effort, and they might lock you out to profit from your work. Hackers don’t like that.
Therefore, all the winning ideas I mentioned are open source. If a technology isn’t, that’s a major red flag when evaluating its future potential. It’s not even optional anymore - it’s pretty much mandatory.
But there’s another reason why open source is a catalyst for success: Initially, open source projects start as minimally functional versions without user-friendly documentation. They might be tough to set up, but the core idea is there. If people stick with it despite the lack of hand-holding, you know it’s solving a real problem - and that’s a sign of a winning idea.
You Still Need Patience
You probably know I’m all in on Rust. After all, I make my living as a Rust consultant. It took Rust over a decade of development to gain any real traction in the industry. It’s been a slow but steady climb.
It takes time for the public to catch up before a technology hits its stride. For core technologies like programming languages or databases, it often takes a decade or more. That’s simply how long technology needs to mature.
That’s why I tell founders to stay slightly conservative when adopting new tech. The industry needs time to catch up, and big companies need specialized tools to integrate new tech into their existing systems. On the other side, investing early in promising technologies is a calculated risk because the writing is on the wall.
What Can You Learn From This?
Hackers are already living in the future. You can use that to your advantage. Ask 10 hackers what new things they’re really excited about, and you’ll get a good picture of what’s going to be important in a few years.
Most business people don’t talk to hackers regularly. That’s a fact you can use to your advantage.
If you’re selling to developers (and you probably shouldn’t), the key is to really listen to what the hackers are saying and then follow their lead.
Thanks for reading! I mostly write about Rust and my (open-source) projects. If you would like to receive future posts automatically, you can subscribe via RSS.